Well, the Supremes just had a famous abortion case - limiting so-called partial birth abortion. Both sides hail this as extremely significant. And perhaps politically it will be. But legally, it really isn't. And even if you're pro-life, there really isn't much to get excited about.
Basically, it outlaws a specific procedure, one which wasn't all that common to begin with, and which has a more common alternative method. So all those pro-lifers celebrating, well, they have nothing to celebrate. In reality, this will probably reduce the number of abortions by exactly zero, so those who see abortion as murdering babies, well, no babies will be saved by this ruling. It is the equivalent, to them, of outlawing death by hanging and just replacing it with a firing squad. You still get just as dead.
It also really isn't much of a precedent either. The only reason it passed muster was that because of all of the above - the fact that it really wouldn't stop any abortions, just altered how a few would have been done. Not exactly a precedent to use to reduce the number of abortions. Essentially, the whole thing about 'partial birth' abortions was more political theater (read: bullshit) than anything substantive. Nothing really has changed.
Politically, though, it could be interesting to see the effect. It may very well backfire on the pro-lifers because this may energize the pro-choice base. All for something that really gave the pro-lifers nothing.
The Supreme Court will NEVER overturn Roe v Wade, at least not if the GOP has anything to say about it. It is too valuable as a fundraising vehicle, for one. And it would give an immediate fundraising boost and grassroots boost to the pro-choice movement. It would also make the GOP a permanent minority party. Right now, there are lots of pro-choice voters who vote for Republicans secure in the knowledge that it doesn't matter if the candidate is pro-life because Roe stops them from doing anything. With Roe gone, however, now this would suddenly matter, and all sorts of votes for GOP candidates will evaporate as they actually have to pay a price for their pro-life stance politically that they didn't have to before - in essence, they could benefit from the religious base by declaring themselves pro-life while at the same time they would not have to worry about alienating mainstream pro-choice voters because Roe kept them from actually doing anything to outlaw abortions. This is also why I think Democratic Supreme Court nominees are pretty clear on their support for Roe while GOP nominees are all secretive about it - not because they'd overturn it, but because they wouldn't, for purely political reasons. Of course, once they are on the court, they are there for life, and free to do as they please, so perhaps we could all be shocked, but I'd be willing to bet that in those smoke-filled backrooms, all GOP candidates for the court are carefully vetted to make sure they NEVER overturn Roe.
One of these eons, I'll post something about my own views on abortion. But that is a long post for another day.
1 year ago